نشریه آینده پژوهی مدیریت
سال بیست و ششم شماره 3 (پیاپی 104، پاییز 1394)

Many researches in recent years show specific effects of different variables on good governance practices. In some, the researchers have shown the great impact of egovernance on good governance and vice versa.
This research aims to find the underlying relations among e-governance on good governance.
Research This paper can be categorized to descriptive (based on the nature), library study (based on the data gathering method), fundamental theoretical research (based on objective). This paper uses a quantitative research method by utilizing Kalman Filter as a data mining (prediction) tool.
Findings: The results obtained from current trend analysis has showed that there is a strong relations between e-governance and good governance proportionally. Scenario-based analysis also figured out that the change in good governance level on the e-governance has more impact than the change in e-governance level on the good governance.

Dramatic changes in the world make organizations have encouraged more thoroughly contemplating about future. Lots of changes including globalization, technology progression, amplified complexity in decision-making, have compelled organizations to precisely identify and prepare for further altered futures. Today, the term "foresight" has been widely applied and
denote a sort of approaches that deliberate on thinking about the long-term future, strategic decision-making processes and intelligent estimations.
Foresight concepts needs a systematic set of executable patterns. From the 1990s, the
patterns are used with different approaches, they were renovated from casual to systematic state. These patterns which produced by scholars represent the verified processes that are confirmed in various futures studie's projects and try to guarantee the accuracy of the foresight outcomes. Despite various efforts in developing foresight patterns exist, the patterns has a wide range of
diversity in form and content. The main objective of this paper is to identify how to classify global foresight patterns and recognize the evolutionary process of foresight patterns over time and subsequently changes on foresight patterns in past twenty years. In order to provide the most appropriate response to this question set of criteria have been identified and based on that current foresight patterns are compared with each other.
The methodology used in this paper in terms of data collection and literature review is qualitative. In this article eleven global foresight patterns have been studied comparatively. Each of these models represents a way of thinking, looking to the future and planning for future.
The results of these study illustrated in comparative tables and demonstrate that the main axis of the plain foresight patterns have been untouched, correspondingly the evolutionary process of adding key topics for ease of implementation and validate the results of the studies.

One of the most important tools in the hands of managers and experts to make strategic decisions is Methods of forecasting and futures. Despite the development of prediction methods, but less likely to use these methods in predicting social phenomena such as marriage, divorce and population growth are discussed. In this study, using data from marriage and divorce between the years 1992 to 2013 in Ilam province to forecasts, the number of these phenomena using models Box Jenkins, Artificial Neural Network and Adjusted Exponential has been studied for years to come. The results showed that the prediction accuracy Box Jenkins model to predict the number of marriages and Artificial Neural Network model to predict the number of divorces is more than any other prediction methods. The predicted values showed that the proportion of marriages end in divorce in Ilam province between the years 2014 to 2018 following the gentle slope, to reduce the move.

Scenario scripting and development, one of the most important method in futures studies, can be resulted by using logic sequence of events methods like "probability scenario tree ". This method, despite its special benefits, was less valued by researchers and scenario planner. Trees were rarely used as a development tools but in this research, authors attempt to explain a special methods step by step that can set new writing and reading style for future scenarios examined in topics entities. In this way, contact to scenario is operated successively. Then possible future situations and images with conditional probabilities can be seen as a tree with a distinct routes from root (now status) to end which appear as a scenario. Identified key variables as driving forces of investigated matter and determining different and discrete status of them could make different chronological order of their occurrence apparent and the conditional probabilities from node to node towards the future can be calculated. In this study, the researchers scanned the scientific literature and developed a practice step by step in a case study entitled " Next 5 Years Tehran Stock Exchange Scenarios ". We tried to perform this method and deliver feedback to strengthen it through interviews and questionnaires and library studies too. The results of applying this method in Tehran Stock Exchange shows approval logic on probability calculations method and chronology of events. Events followed from the pre-known chance percent by experts and was so interesting. The advantages of this expert-based method are to strengthen the recognition and diagnosis of favorable and unfavorable scenarios with probability of their occurrence, appearing future state map at a glance, recognizing the transformational interruption points and Milestones in the future, sensitivity analysis and contingency planning. Results and outputs of this method can make fertile field for scenarios based planning and processing by experts, so that it provides to imagine the future through deeper understanding and insight in the complex decision-making.

This study was conducted to determine the future of textile industry of Qom. This is an applied and a survey research of descriptive groups, in terms of objective and data collection method, respectively. The statistical population is from textile industry experts and snowball sampling method was used to make a sample. Questionnaire was applied to collect the data. Scenario analysis method was employed to analyze the data for this study. To develop plausible scenarios, the techniques of crisis uncertainty would be used. The nature of the questions is considered based on the uncertainties in the field of textile industry in the country that have two limit states and there is uncertainty on the occurrence of one of these two. In order to analyze the questionnaires and use the results in writing scenarios, 3 indicators of specialty, consensus and significance were used. According to the indicators of consensus and the significance, two states of the "purchasing power by people" and "trade liberalization and the removal of tariffs" were selected. Due to both of uncertainties, four scenarios were developed, including textile of smiling, hope to grow, multi-stratified cemetery and window of life.

All existent activities in supply chain are to supply market demand by providing products with maximum quality, minimum price and in due date to customers. Due to suppliers have basic role on criteria: cost, quality, etc at access to the goals of supply chain, suppliers are a critical component of an organization that can have effect on the performance of the organization. Because of these diverse effects, accurate and efficient techniques application seems to be necessary for suppliers evaluation and selection and order allocation to them. Thus, a wide range of techniques to examine suppliers selection problem has been proposed by several researchers. Therefore, in this paper first the suppliers selection problem and process are explained. Then, methods and some studies for the each stage of the suppliers selection process are presented. Since suppliers selection problem often face with uncertainty and constraints for buyer and suppliers in real world, some done researchs in multiple sourcing field under uncertainty environment are only studied in the last stage of the suppliers selection process. Finally, conclusion and suggestions for future research are provided.